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Integrated land use/transportation forecasting models add significant policy and infrastructure alternatives analysis capabilities to the urban planning process. The financial, time, and staff requirements to develop these models has put them beyond the reach of most small to medium sized urban areas. This paper presents the land use allocation submodel of the Simple, Efficient, Elegant, and Effective model of land use and transportation (SE3M), an integrated land use and transportation forecasting model founded upon Economic Base Theory and Bid-rent Theory. The Bid-rent Land Use Model (BLUM) is an agent based, spatial competition model utilizing unique utility curves for willingness to pay and incomes for budget constrained abilities to pay for each agent. The model structure, estimation, calibration, implementation, and validation are presented. With a single year of land use data available, the validation approach used the Kappa Index of Agreement to spatially check model outputs against base year control data while controlling for agreement by chance. The U.S. territory of Guam is used as the case study/proof of concept implementation for this model framework. Once calibrated, BLUM could solve the spatial competition problem on Guam in less than two minutes of processing time with over 90% accuracy. 相似文献
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研究职住空间失调能够帮助我们更好地理解个体对职住分离的态度和偏好,并有助于在制定政策时考虑通勤者更真实的需求和期望.本次研究采用理想通勤时间和实际通勤时间的匹配程度来度量职住空间失调,并以昆明市为案例进行了实证研究.描述性统计结果表明,大多数通勤者认为他们的职住空间是失调的,有41.04%的通勤者遭受重度空间失调.进一步,基于序次Logistic回归模型分析了职住空间失调的影响因素.结果表明,出行方式、居住区位、年龄、受教育程度和家庭有无小孩对职住空间失调有显著影响.同时,由于个体对通勤时间的态度和偏好的异质性,更长的通勤时间并不总是意味着职住空间更加失调. 相似文献
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Use of the private car is often viewed as highly problematic. It is regularly associated with global physical, social and ecological harms such as climate change and the high incidence of lifestyle diseases, including heart disease. Attempts to address these problems generally include provision for day-to-day physical mobility based on alternatives to the private car. Labelled alternative transport, these modes include public transport, walking and cycling. Yet the private car continues as the preferred way to travel in many cities. A deeper understanding of this preference can reveal under explored sites of resistance to alternative transport modes.This paper contributes to these understandings by examining the role the car as a time saving device plays in sustaining automobility. Its central proposition is that individual decisions to drive are not necessarily motivated by the desire to save time. The paper draws on empirical evidence on the journey to work in Australia’s largest city, Sydney. Using a systematic process of trip substitution analysis, a group of people were identified who could use alternative transport to get to work in the same amount of time it currently takes them to drive. These people then participated in a series of in-depth interviews where deeper attachments and motivations for private car use were explored.This approach has enabled development of the multi-layered understanding that informs the central proposition that individual decisions to drive are not necessarily motivated by the desire to save time. Instead, automobility is sustained by appeals to flexibility and autonomy, as well as the interminable pull of the sensory experience provided by the cocoon of the car. This way of thinking about resistance to alternative transport exposes a series of inconsistencies between the expectations of those planning for, and those anticipated to one day use, alternative transport. 相似文献
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An analysis of the determinants of children’s weekend physical activity participation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This paper examines the out-of-home, weekend, time-use patterns of children aged 5–17 years, with a specific emphasis on their
physical activity participation. The impact of several types of factors, including individual and household demographics,
neighborhood demographics, built environment characteristics, and activity day variables, on physical activity participation
is analyzed using a joint nested multiple discrete–continuous extreme value-binary choice model. The sample for analysis is
drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey. The model developed in the paper can be used to assess the impacts
of changing demographics and built environment characteristics on children’s physical activity levels. 相似文献
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Robert Cervero 《Transportation》1996,23(4):373-394
Neo-traditional designs, proponents argue, reduce dependency on the automobile and provide attractive environments for walking, bicycling, and transit riding. This paper explores the extent to which this proposition holds for seven traditional neighborhoods in the San Francisco Bay Area that evolved around early streetcar services. Matched-pair comparisons of modal shares and trip generation rates for work trips are made between these neighborhoods and newer auto-oriented suburbs, controlling for the effects of income and, to a lesser extent, existing bus service levels. Pedestrian/bicycle modal shares and trip rates tended to be considerably higher, in some cases five time as high, in transit-oriented than in the paired auto-oriented neighborhood. Transit neighborhoods also averaged around 70 more daily transit work trips per 1,000 households than auto-oriented neighborhoods, though trip rates varied considerably among neighborhood pairs. Higher residential densities were also found to have a proportionately greater impact on transit commuting in transit-oriented than in auto-oriented neighborhoods. The paper concludes that in order to yield significant transportation benefits, neo-traditional development must be coordinated with larger regional planning efforts and public policy initiatives to reduce automobile dependency. 相似文献
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